Three years ago, the challenge was getting EVs onto fleets.
Now, for many operators, the challenge is what happens when they come off.
Falling used EV prices, volatile residual forecasts and uncertainty around battery condition have made some fleets hesitant about new orders.
Used EV value isn't a problem one fleet can fix. It's a structural market shift driven by supply, demand and maturity. However, if fleets understand it, they can manage their exposure.
Why used EV values have come under pressure
1. A wave of returning vehicles
The first large wave of EVs acquired through lease and salary sacrifice schemes between 2019 and 2022 is now returning to the market. That influx of supply has temporarily outpaced demand in some segments.
2. Premium models saw the sharpest correction
Vehicles such as the Jaguar I-PACE, Mercedes EQC and early Tesla Model X models have experienced significant price resets compared to 2022 peaks. The correction has been most visible at the premium end.
3. Battery uncertainty still affects buyers
Despite strong durability data, many used buyers remain cautious about battery condition. That uncertainty translates into risk discounting.
Independent analysis from Generational shows an average battery state of health of 95.15 percent across more than 8,000 EVs tested aged from zero to 12 years and mileages from zero to more than 160,000 miles. Arval’s battery data across 8,300 vehicles shows an average of 93 percent.
The data is strong but the perception gap remains.
4. Cheaper new EVs are changing buyer maths
As more affordable new EVs enter the market, some consumers who might previously have purchased used are now buying new. That shifts demand dynamics.
What this means for fleets
Residual volatility affects:
Lease pricing
Contract hire rates
Defleet timing decisions
Internal total cost of ownership forecasts
In the next article, we look at what fleets can do to protect value.
Read guidance in this series
Better Fleet: What works in the used EV market
Better Fleet: A practical playbook for managing EV residual risk
Or join Better Fleet for best-practice planning that's proven through real-world case studies: Better Fleet Campaign
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