Cox Automotive’s third edition of its Insight Quarterly (IQ) forecast delivers key insights on the UK automotive sector.
The Q4/2024 report highlights the changing dynamics of the European automotive industry.
• The 2025 baseline forecast predicts 2,043,115 new car registrations, reflecting a 3.6% increase from 2024. However, this remains 11.6% below the 2001-2019 average.
- The UK’s reliance on global manufacturers continues to be significant, with imports accounting for 90% of new car registrations. This equates to a record 1.72 million imported units in 2023, an 18.6% rise from 2022.
- CA’s Insight Director, Philip Nothard, said, “Although global vehicle production remains high, a growing misalignment between production rates and the UK’s ambitious ZEV targets raises questions about OEMs’ commitment to meeting UK mandates, especially with rising pressure to increase EV sales. The industry faces complex trade-offs as it reduces ICE production to meet ZEV goals, setting up 2025 and beyond as a period of significant market transformation.”
- Cox Automotive forecasts 2027 as the BEV tipping point, with registrations expected to grow from 21% to 34%, a substantial 165.4% increase.
- The latest projections suggest the transition to new energy vehicles (NEVs) could result in fewer vehicle makes and models if some OEMs reduce their UK presence.
- Nothard continues, “The evolving landscape is prompting many OEMs to reassess the agency sales model, often delaying its full implementation as they seek greater financial transparency. With the shift from traditional ‘push’ to demand-driven ‘pull’ sales, consumers may experience reduced vehicle availability, reflecting OEMs’ focus on aligning supply with actual demand.”
- He adds, “A gradual boost in consumer confidence is on the horizon. This optimism is likely to sustain demand in the new vehicle market, with fleet sales playing a central role.”
See the report here: https://bit.ly/3AMnZyf
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