The UK car market is forecast to rebound to 10.2 million transactions in 2026, putting overall activity back on par with 2019 as used demand strengthens, according to new analysis from Autotrader. This year is expected to close at 9.8 million new and used transactions — the strongest result since before the pandemic.
SMMT data shows growth in the used car market for Q3
With used sales predicted to grow 3% year on year to 8.2 million, fleets and leasing companies will be watching closely. After years of volatility in electric vehicle (EV) residuals, a more stable and fast-moving used market could ease remarketing risk — particularly as used EV demand is up 30% year on year, with the 3–5-year-old segment rising 37%.
But new car registrations haven not recovered to pre-pandemic levels
By contrast, new car registrations are expected to see only 1–2% growth, held back by regulatory obligations and tougher price competition. Autotrader says buyer confidence remains a crucial buffer against wider economic uncertainty: nine in 10 consumers feel as confident or more confident about affording their next vehicle, and nearly three quarters plan to buy within six months.
Three trends will define 2026:
Constrained used stock, with 1.6 million fewer 3–5-year-old cars than in 2019
The next phase of EV adoption, fuelled by the Electric Car Grant
Intense brand competition, rising from 45 brands in 2019 to around 80 by end-2026