Better Fleet: Why EV cost uncertainty is holding fleets back

Most fleets now accept that electrification is coming.

The challenge isn’t direction of travel but confidence in the numbers behind it.

Across the market, uncertainty around EV costs is still slowing decision-making. That uncertainty shows up in different ways: delayed replacement cycles, extended vehicle life, or hesitation to commit at scale.

The numbers don’t always line up

Ask three different stakeholders what an EV costs to run and you’ll often get three different answers.

That’s because EV cost isn’t one number. It’s a combination of variables that can become overwhelming:

  • vehicle price and depreciation
  • charging costs across different locations
  • maintenance and repair risk
  • utilisation and duty cycle

When those inputs aren’t aligned, the overall picture becomes unclear.

Perception and reality are still misaligned

There’s also a gap between what fleets think EVs cost and what they actually cost.

Research from Motability Operations’ EV Transition Tracker shows the gap clearly. Around half of UK drivers believe EVs cost more over their lifetime, yet over half of those already driving electric say petrol and diesel are actually more expensive to run, rising further where home charging is in place.

The issue isn’t just cost. It’s perception.

Charging is still the biggest unknown

Fuel costs are familiar. Electricity isn’t.

Charging introduces variability that fleets haven’t had to deal with before in different tariffs, variable price by location, different charging speeds and complex pricing structures.

Without a clear model of how vehicles will actually charge, cost projections can quickly become unreliable.

Residual value and depreciation remain a concern

Data from Cox Automotive shows EVs have depreciated faster than petrol vehicles early in life, with first-year residual values around 68% compared to 81% for ICE. That gap has fed directly into higher lease costs and weaker confidence in long-term value.

The picture is starting to improve. By the three to five-year mark, residual values begin to align, supported by a growing and more active used EV market.

According to the British Vehicle Rental and Leasing Association, operators are extending vehicle lifecycles and delaying replacement decisions to limit residual value exposure.

Used EVs are changing the equation

At the same time, the used market is creating new opportunities.

More off-lease EVs are entering circulation, improving affordability and reducing upfront risk.

As Scott Norville from Silverstone Leasing explains:

“The single biggest financial hit any car takes is in its first twelve months. A nearly-new lease means someone else has absorbed that drop.”

That shift is starting to make EV adoption more accessible, particularly for fleets managing cashflow and risk exposure.

The shift from assumption to evidence

The fleets moving forward are approaching this differently.

They’re:

  • modelling real-world operating conditions
  • using live data rather than assumptions
  • testing EVs in controlled environments before scaling

In the next article, we look at what good EV cost management actually looks like in practice.

Read more guidance in this series:

What good EV cost management actually looks like

A practical playbook for reducing EV cost

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