Hydrogen’s 95% value loss highlights whole-life cost risk

A fleet of hydrogen busses lines up in a depot.

A fleet of Aberdeen hydrogen buses is providing a striking reminder that emerging propulsion technologies need to be assessed on disposal value as well as operating cost.

Aberdeen City Council originally invested around £13.9m in 25 hydrogen double-deckers, equating to roughly £556,000 per vehicle. First Bus is now set to acquire 23 of them for around £30,000 each.

That represents residual value of only around 5% of the original average purchase cost.

For fleet managers, the lesson is broader than hydrogen.

Any emerging technology can carry additional residual-value, infrastructure and secondary-market risk. Those factors need to be included when comparing whole-life costs rather than relying solely on fuel, maintenance or emissions benefits.

Before adopting less mature technologies, fleets should ask who is likely to buy the asset at the end of its first life, what infrastructure will remain available and how sensitive the business case is to a weaker-than-expected residual value.

Innovation can still be worthwhile, but exit strategy needs to form part of the procurement decision from day one.

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